Open Drive
Price moves decisively away from the open with limited early retracement. Observe whether that initiative continues or returns toward the opening price.
← Research libraryOD OTD ORR OA
Market Profile Opening Types: Examples & ES Research
Dalton's 4 Opening Types | ES | 2008-2026 | 4,662 sessions
Read the open
The four Market Profile opening types
These labels describe early auction behavior, not automatic entries. Start with where price opens relative to the prior session, then watch the response. The sketches below are hypothetical teaching examples, not historical trades or the research classifier.
Open Test Drive
An early test in one direction is rejected, followed by a drive the other way. In this example, the lower test fails before an upward move develops.
Open Rejection Reverse
An initial directional attempt fails and price reverses back through the opening area. Here, the upward attempt is rejected and sellers take price lower.
Open Auction
Price trades back and forth around the open without a sustained early drive. That early rotation does not guarantee a range-bound session.
Illustrative price paths; no fixed price or time scale. Directional examples can also occur in reverse.
Open Test Drive vs. Open Rejection Reverse
Both involve rejection. The distinction is the sequence and character of the first attempt—not simply whether a candle crosses the open.
Test first, then drive
In the OTD sketch, price tests below the open, fails to stay there, then drives higher. The lower probe is the test; the subsequent upward movement is the drive.
Initial attempt, then reversal
In the ORR sketch, price first pushes above the open, loses that progress, then reverses below it. Focus on the failure of the initial attempt and the response afterward.
Real sessions do not always fit neatly. Timing, strength, and the reference being tested can change the interpretation. Record the observed sequence and use consistent definitions; if the label is ambiguous, mark it as uncertain rather than forcing a classification.
Before reading the results
The existing ES research below covers 4,662 sessions from 2008–2026 under one classification approach. Its continuation rates describe that sample, not your probability of a profitable trade. Results depend on classification, entry timing, costs, and the market period. Selected-year charts are not a complete year-by-year validation, and no confidence intervals are shown here.
The illustrations above do not reproduce the algorithm or constitute additional backtests. Historical outcomes do not guarantee future results.
The question & finding
Does the opening type describe the rest of the session?
Open Drive showed the strongest continuation tendency in this historical study. The other opening types offered weaker distinctions. Compare the observed session behavior separately from the trade backtests.
4,662 ES sessions · 2008-2026. Classification and continuation rates depend on this study’s definitions; they do not establish a standalone trading system. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Continuation Rate & Session Range by Type
Continuation Rates & Average Session Range
Solid bars = Continuation RateFaded bars = Avg Session Range (pts)--- coin flip (50%)
Breakdown Table
| Type | N | Cont. Rate | Avg Range (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| OD | 793 | 62.5% | 22.4 |
| OTD | 1,026 | 55.8% | 18.7 |
| ORR | 560 | 51.2% | 19.1 |
| OA | 2,283 | 50.1% | 14.3 |
Key finding: Open Drive has the highest continuation rate at 62.5% and the largest average session range at 22.4 pts. But Open Auction — the “balanced” type — still continues 50.1% of the time. The spread between the best and worst type is only ~12 percentage points.
Sample counts & setup
4,662
Total Sessions
793
Open Drive (17%)
1,026
Open Test Drive (22%)
560
Open Rej Reverse (12%)
2,283
Open Auction (49%)
Distribution of Opening Types
How Often Does Each Type Occur?
OD = Open DriveOTD = Open Test DriveORR = Open Rejection ReverseOA = Open Auction
What Does This Tell Us?
Nearly half of all sessions(49%) classify as Open Auction — the “no clear direction” type. This is the default state of the market: balanced, rotational, indecisive.
The supposedly high-conviction types — OD and ORR — together make up only 29%of sessions. If you're waiting for a “clear opening type signal,” you're sitting out half the time.
Direction split within OD and OTD is nearly 50/50 up vs. down, meaning the type classification itself carries no directional bias. The interesting question is whether the type predicts continuation, not direction.
Can You Trade It? Backtest Results
Continuation Trades: Enter at Opening Type Confirmation, 2:1 R:R
Entry in the direction of the opening type's implied bias at the end of the classification window. Stop at 2:1 risk-reward. Conservative stop-first resolution.
| Type | Target (pts) | R:R | N | Win Rate | PF | PnL (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OD | 4 | 2:1 | 793 | 52.1% | 1.42 | +245.0 |
| 8 | 2:1 | 793 | 38.5% | 1.18 | +122.0 | |
| 12 | 2:1 | 793 | 28.2% | 0.95 | -35.0 | |
| OTD | 4 | 2:1 | 1,026 | 48.5% | 1.15 | +130.0 |
| 8 | 2:1 | 1,026 | 35.2% | 0.98 | -15.0 | |
| ORR | 4 | 2:1 | 560 | 46.1% | 1.05 | +22.0 |
| 8 | 2:1 | 560 | 32.5% | 0.89 | -48.0 |
Reading this sample: Open Drive with a 4-point target has the highest displayed profit factor, 1.42, with a 52.1% win rate. Other configurations have lower reported results, including profit factors below 1. These summaries do not establish a live-trading edge. Review costs, execution assumptions, and out-of-sample performance before drawing that conclusion.
Yearly Stability: Continuation Rate Over Time
Continuation Rate by Type (Selected Years)
ODOTDORROA--- 50% coin flip
What the Lines Show
Open Drive's continuation rate is above 60% in the selected years displayed. That is roughly 10–15 percentage pointsabove the 50% reference line, not a measured trading edge or proof of stability in every year.
Open Auction is near 50% in the displayed years. OTD and ORR sit between OA and OD. These observations apply to this classifier and sample; they do not rule out other contextual uses.
OD has a higher reported continuation rate than OA in these selected years. A full yearly series, uncertainty estimates, and independent testing would be needed to assess how robust that difference is.
Classification Challenges
A key problem with opening type analysis: the classification is subjective. Dalton's books describe the types qualitatively, not with exact rules. Our classification uses a specific algorithm, but different implementations would produce different distributions.
The boundary between OTD and ORR is particularly blurry. Both involve a test and reversal — the difference is the aggressiveness of the rejection. Discretionary traders will classify the same session differently.
Interpretation matters: results from one classification method should not be assumed to apply to another. Consistent definitions are necessary to compare observations meaningfully.
The Verdict
Partially Useful, but Not a Trading System
Open Drive has the highest reported continuation rate (62.5%) and average session range (22.4 points) in this sample. The other types show smaller distinctions under the same definitions.
A useful observation to record is whether the opening move was sustained or rejected. Interpret that behavior alongside location and subsequent price response rather than treating the label as a forecast for the entire session.
These results support further investigation of opening behavior as context. They do not validate a standalone trading system or establish that other opening types have no value in different settings.
Definitions & interpretation
What Traders Believe
James Dalton classifies every session into one of four opening typesbased on the first 30–60 minutes of price action. The theory — taught in Mind Over Markets and Markets in Profile— is that the opening type tells you what kind of session to expect:
- Open Drive (OD)— aggressive directional move from the open. Believed to signal strong conviction and trending sessions.
- Open Test Drive (OTD)— price tests one direction, rejects, then drives the other way. Believed to confirm the real direction.
- Open Rejection Reverse (ORR)— price makes a brief probe, gets aggressively rejected, and reverses hard. Believed to mark key turning points.
- Open Auction (OA)— no clear direction; price rotates both ways. Believed to indicate balanced, range-bound sessions.
The claim: identifying the opening type early gives you a roadmap for the rest of the session. We tested it. 4,662 sessions. Every type. Continuation rates, session ranges, and actual trade performance.
From the result to your chart
How to use the opening-type examples
An opening label organizes observed behavior. The useful question is whether the move holds, tests, or rejects—and how that behavior fits the opening location.
What is being measured?
The dashboard applies a specific classification algorithm to ES sessions and compares continuation, session range, and trade variants. Use the visual examples to understand Open Drive, Open Test Drive, Open Rejection Reverse, and Open Auction before comparing their results.
Walk through an example
Illustrative, not a historical session
An initial push down followed by an upward drive needs more context than two arrows. Examine the test, rejection, and sustained movement to distinguish a test-drive from a rejection-reverse under the stated definitions. The label is not known at the opening print.
What can change the interpretation?
These opening types began as qualitative descriptions. Algorithmic thresholds and classification windows affect which label a session receives. A label assigned after observing the opening window cannot be treated as information available before that window.
Try a structured review
Save your chart at the end of the classification window and describe the behavior before looking at the rest of the session. Compare your original observation with what followed; keep ambiguous sessions in your review.
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