Historical futures research
Explore what happened across historical futures sessions. Start with the finding, then examine the charts, sample, and limitations behind it.
Compare exact reaches and near approaches by gap width and direction.
Compare the first break with a simple nearest-boundary baseline.
Separate confirmed re-entry, opposite-side reach, and trade outcomes.
Use visual examples to distinguish the four types, then examine the ES results.
Each study below provides its own sample and definitions. Begin with the result, inspect the charts, then read the methodology and limitations before comparing it with your own observations.
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Choose a question, then open the research behind it.
11 of 11 studies
What context am I bringing into the session?
How do different opening types relate to the rest of the session?
Classifies every ES session into Dalton's four opening types — Open Drive, Open Test Drive, Open Rejection Reverse, and Open Auction — then tests whether classification predicts session behavior, range, and tradeable continuation.
Data coverage: 18 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
Does overnight positioning help explain regular-session direction?
Tests whether overnight positioning relative to the prior day's Value Area predicts RTH direction. Long inventory above VAH should correct down; short inventory below VAL should correct up. Does it?
Data coverage: 18 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
Does the prior session’s close relative to value help explain the next day?
Analyzes whether the RTH close position relative to the day's own Value Area predicts next-day direction. Close above VA = bullish continuation? Close below = bearish? Tested with 10 trade variants across 18 years.
Data coverage: 18 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
Which references might price revisit or react to?
How often does price reach the half-gap, and how does tolerance change the result?
How often does RTH price reach the midpoint between the prior RTH close and today's open? Compare zero-tolerance reaches with near approaches by market, gap width, and direction. This is a destination statistic, not a trade win rate.
Data coverage: 2019–2026. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
How often are Monday and Wednesday midpoints revisited?
Monday and Wednesday midpoint revisit rate analysis with null-hypothesis testing — quantifying whether the midpoint is a statistically significant reference level versus random price action.
Data coverage: 16 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
How does price react at the prior day’s high and low?
Tests whether prior day's RTH high and low act as support/resistance — with null hypothesis comparison against random price levels. Measures reaction rates, MFE/MAE, and fade trade performance at 5 tolerance levels.
Data coverage: 18 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
What happens around zones and value areas?
How do reach and reaction differ by the prior-close and current-open zone?
Explore historical reach and reaction by prior-close and current-open zone. Reaching a level, reacting there, and making a profitable trade are different outcomes. Dashboard access requires an active AMT Balance license.
Data coverage: Dates by market. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
Does the historical evidence support the 80% Value Area Rule?
Faithful 18-year test of Dalton's '80% Value Area Rule' using proper 30-minute bracket confirmation on ES. The claim: 80% chance of full VA traverse. The data: 62% reach the opposite side, 33% traverse cleanly, and no trade variant beats coin-flip territory.
Data coverage: 18 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
What follows an initial range, structural change, or model condition?
Does the order of the completed Initial Balance extremes help explain the first break?
Does the order of the completed IB extremes help explain the first breakout? Compare no-break outcomes, uncertainty, and a nearest-boundary baseline—which had higher agreement in the matched historical sample. Not a trade win rate.
Data coverage: 2008–2026. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
What happens after a break of structure or change of character?
Break of Structure and Change of Character event analysis — measuring follow-through rates, reversal probabilities, and optimal entry timing after structural shifts.
Data coverage: 7 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
What has happened after the model’s trend-exhaustion conditions?
Historical study of a rule-based trend exhaustion model using multiple intraday factors. Model signals describe conditions, not recommendations or guaranteed reversals.
Data coverage: 7 Years. Check the study for definitions and limitations.
