IB Extreme Order Dashboard
2008-05-05 to 2026-05-29 | 4,659 sessions
The question · ES initial balance
Does extreme order beat a simpler rule?
Not in this historical comparison. Predicting the boundary nearest the final IB close agreed with the first break more often than the order of the completed IB extremes.
2008-05-05 to 2026-05-29 · Both rules use the same 4,503 eligible sessions. No-break days, same-minute extremes, equal-distance closes, and ambiguous break bars are excluded. Retrospective directional agreement is not a trade win rate; intervals assume independent sessions.
Baseline comparison & sample rulesExact counts, exclusions, and sensitivity checks for the headline comparison.
Does extreme order beat a simpler baseline?
In this historical comparison, it does not. At the end of the first hour, predicting the boundary nearest the final IB close agreed with the first break more often. Both rules below use exactly the same eligible sessions.
| Rule | Correct / sessions | Agreement | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completed-IB extreme order | 3188 / 4503 | 70.8% | 69.5–72.1% |
| Nearest boundary at IB close | 3497 / 4503 | 77.7% | 76.4–78.9% |
When the two rules disagreed (879 sessions), extreme order agreed with the break 32.4% of the time versus 67.6% for proximity. This result does not establish a profitable trading strategy.
Sample rules and sensitivity checks
At the end of the first RTH hour, the baseline predicts the nearest IB boundary from the final IB close. Both rules use exactly the same sessions. No-break days, same-bar IB extremes, equal-distance closes, and first-break bars that cross both boundaries are excluded from this comparison. Original sample permits at least 30 first-hour bars; full-hour sensitivity is shown separately. Strict breaks are required (> high or < low).
Excluded-category counts: 114 no-break sessions, 1 same-minute IB extreme session, 41 equal-distance closes, and 0 ambiguous first-break bars. Categories can overlap.
Requiring all 60 first-hour bars: extreme order 70.8%, proximity 77.6% (n=4481). Earlier sample through 2023: 70.7% versus 77.3%. Recent sample, 2024–May 2026: 71.1% versus 80.1% (n=609). These are retrospective comparisons, not an untouched holdout.
Extreme-order outcomesDirectional rates, no-break sessions, and the original sample denominators.
What these percentages measure
Of 4,659 sessions, 1 had both final IB extremes in the same minute and 114 ordered sessions had no subsequent break. The directional percentages use the remaining 4,544 sessions with a first break. Counting no-break sessions in the ordered sample gives 68.8% agreement across all ordered sessions.
95% Wilson intervals: high-first 65.0–68.9%; low-first 72.2–75.8%; combined 69.2–71.9%. These describe sampling uncertainty assuming independent sessions; they do not capture regime shifts or establish trade profitability.
Historical sample: 2008-05-05 to 2026-05-29. Yearly and split-period comparisons below are retrospective stability checks, not a new unseen test. One-minute bars cannot resolve which side broke first if both boundaries broke within the same bar; the original calculation checks the upper boundary first.
Directional Accuracy
Directional Prediction
HIGH forms first → expect DOWN break
LOW forms first → expect UP break
LOW First has the higher overall rate, but not in every year. Compare the yearly breakdown below.
Session Distribution
Outcome Breakdown
Conditions & historical stabilityRange size, weekday, bar alignment, and split-period comparisons.
Accuracy by Conditions
By IB Range Size
By Day of Week
1m / 5m Bar Alignment
No edge from 1m/5m bar direction - accuracy identical regardless of alignment.
Half-Sample Stability
2008-05-05 to 2017-05-25
2017-05-26 to 2026-05-29
Delta: 2.2pp - Stable across halves
Breakout timing & extensionsFirst-break timing, price extensions, and yearly results.
Breakout Behavior
Break Scenarios
When both sides break: 646 up first, 623 down first
Accuracy: both break 70.3% | one side 70.7%
Median first break: 15 min after IB | Avg: 39.7 min
First Breakout Timing (min after IB)
64% of first breakouts occur within 30 min of IB end
Extensions & Yearly Trend
Extension Level Hit Rates
Yearly Accuracy (HF / LF Split)
What is IB extreme order?Definitions and guidance for interpreting the study.
What is IB Extreme Order?
The Initial Balance (IB)is the price range established in the first 60 minutes of RTH (6:30–7:30 AM in the source chart's Pacific time). During IB formation, one extreme (the session high or low of the IB period) is set before the other. Once that hour is complete, we compare the order of the final extremes with the first post-IB breakout direction:
How to use this
- Directional bias after IB completes — At 7:30 AM, check which extreme formed first to set your directional lean for the session.
- Compare range groups — Larger IB ranges had higher historical first-break agreement (77% versus 64% for small ranges). These subgroup results are not a tested trading edge.
- Read extensions as frequencies — Extension charts describe subsequent price movement, not executable profit targets. Entries, stops, costs, and intrabar order have not been tested here.
- Check the baseline — The nearer-boundary rule outperformed extreme order on the same eligible sessions below. The 1m/5m alignment comparisons do not establish an incremental advantage.
From the result to your chart
How to read the IB Extreme research
In the matched historical comparison, the boundary nearest the final IB close agreed with the first break more often than extreme order did. A useful result must survive a simple comparison.
What is being measured?
The Initial Balance is the first 60 minutes of RTH in this study. Once that window is complete, identify whether the final IB high or low formed first, then observe the first break. Compare both direction rules on the same eligible sessions and inspect no-break outcomes separately.
Walk through an example
Illustrative, not a historical session
Suppose the completed IB ranges from 6,000 to 6,020 and closes at 6,018. The nearest-boundary rule points up because the high is two points away. Extreme order is a different rule: it depends on when the completed high and low formed, not just where the IB closed.
What can change the interpretation?
You cannot know the final IB extremes while the first hour is still developing. Excluding no-break sessions changes the denominator. Directional agreement alone says nothing about the stop, target, execution costs, or whether a proposed trade wins.
Try a structured review
Mark the completed IB, its close, the order of its extremes, and both directional readings. Log the first break or no break. Do not replace the research's completed-hour definition with an early-session guess.
All research · New to the name? What AMT Balance means.