IB Extreme Order Dashboard

2008-05-05 to 2026-05-29 | 4,659 sessions

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What is IB Extreme Order?

The Initial Balance (IB) is the price range established in the first 60 minutes of RTH (6:30-7:30 AM PST). During IB formation, one extreme (the session high or low of the IB period) is set before the other. This order predicts which direction the first post-IB breakout will occur:

HIGH forms first — IB high is established early, then price pulls down to set the IB low later. The market is "reaching up then rejecting." First breakout tends to be DOWN through the IB low.
LOW forms first — IB low is established early, then price pushes up to set the IB high later. The market is "finding a floor then climbing." First breakout tends to be UP through the IB high.

How to use this

  • Directional bias after IB completes — At 7:30 AM, check which extreme formed first to set your directional lean for the session.
  • Filter by IB range size — Larger IB ranges produce stronger signals (77% accuracy vs 64% for small). Tight IB days are less predictable.
  • Extension targets — Use the extension hit rates to set realistic profit targets. 1.25x IB extension is reached ~50% of the time; 2x only ~18%.
  • Combine with other context — The IB extreme order is a standalone structural signal. It does not improve with 1m/5m bar alignment (see below).
4,659
Total Sessions
67%
HIGH First → DOWN (n=2305)
74%
LOW First → UP (n=2353)
70.5%
Combined Accuracy
16.38 pts
Avg IB Range

Directional Accuracy

Directional Prediction

HIGH forms first → expect DOWN break

HIGH 1st
67% DOWN
33.0% UP

LOW forms first → expect UP break

LOW 1st
74% UP
26.0% DOWN

LOW First signal is consistently stronger than HIGH First across all years.

Session Distribution

HIGH 1st
49.5%
LOW 1st
50.5%

Outcome Breakdown

HIGH 1st correct: 1493
LOW 1st correct: 1713
HIGH 1st wrong: 737
LOW 1st wrong: 601
HIGH 1st no break: 75
LOW 1st no break: 39

Accuracy by Conditions

By IB Range Size

Small (<7.25)
64.3%n=1161
HF: 56.6% (542)LF: 71.1% (619)
Medium
70.5%n=2341
HF: 68% (1171)LF: 72.8% (1170)
Large (>20.5)
77%n=1156
HF: 74.3% (592)LF: 79.8% (564)

By Day of Week

Mon
70.8%
n=931
Tue
71.1%
n=938
Wed
70.7%
n=936
Thu
69.8%
n=936
Fri
70.5%
n=917

1m / 5m Bar Alignment

1m Aligned w/ Setup
70.4%
n=2452
1m Opposed
70.7%
n=2092
5m Aligned
70.6%
n=2621
5m Opposed
70.5%
n=1923

No edge from 1m/5m bar direction - accuracy identical regardless of alignment.

Half-Sample Stability

First Half
69.5%
2272 sessions
2008-05-05 to 2017-05-25
Second Half
71.7%
2272 sessions
2017-05-26 to 2026-05-29

Delta: 2.2pp - Stable across halves

Breakout Behavior

Break Scenarios

Up Only
38.7%
n=1804
Down Only
31.6%
n=1471
Both Sides
27.2%
n=1269
No Break
2.4%
n=114

When both sides break: 646 up first, 623 down first

Accuracy: both break 70.3% | one side 70.7%

Median first break: 15 min after IB | Avg: 39.7 min

First Breakout Timing (min after IB)

64.2%0-3015.4%30-607.3%60-903.6%90-1202.5%120-1501.6%150-1801.1%180-2101.8%210-2400.9%240-2700.7%270-3000.9%300-330

64% of first breakouts occur within 30 min of IB end

Extensions & Yearly Trend

Extension Level Hit Rates

0%15%29%44%59%51.1%46.7%1.25xeither: 86.1%36.7%35.6%1.50xeither: 67.8%25.2%26.8%1.75xeither: 50.1%17.8%19.6%2.00xeither: 36.5%11.7%14.3%2.25xeither: 25.5%7.3%10.6%2.50xeither: 17.6%
Upside extensionDownside extension

Yearly Accuracy (HF / LF Split)

50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%2008n=1692009n=2482010n=2512011n=2492012n=2502013n=2482014n=2502015n=2522016n=2542017n=2492018n=2532019n=2492020n=2542021n=2532022n=2512023n=2532024n=2572025n=2512026n=103
HIGH First → DOWNLOW First → UPCombined