Market Structure Dashboard

2019-01-02 to 2026-05-27 | 1,899 sessions | ES 5-min bars | Swing 5

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What is BOS / CHoCH?

Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) are market structure concepts that identify trend continuation and potential reversals using confirmed swing highs/lows on 5-minute bars.

BOS (Break of Structure) — Price breaks a swing high/low in the same direction as the prior breakout. Signals trend continuation. e.g., breaking a higher high after previously breaking to the upside.
CHoCH (Change of Character) — Price breaks a swing high/low in the opposite direction of the prior breakout. Signals a potential reversal. The first counter-trend break after a trend.

How to use this

  • Session-Close Continuation — "Accuracy" measures whether the session closes in the breakout direction past the break level. This tells you if the signal held through close.
  • Close-based confirmation is superior — Close-based BOS/CHoCH (57%) significantly outperforms wick-based (50.3%). Use close confirmation for cleaner signals.
  • Late session signals are strongest — Events after 11:00 AM PT show 60.1% accuracy vs ~54% for earlier periods. Late signals have less time to reverse.
  • CHoCH slightly outperforms BOS — CHoCH (58.8%) vs BOS (56.1%). Reversal signals carry modest edge over continuation.
  • Upside breaks are more reliable — BOS UP (59.4%) and CHoCH UP (60.2%) outperform their DOWN counterparts. Consistent with ES long bias.
5,427
Total Events
3,673
BOS Signals
1,754
CHoCH Signals
56.1%
BOS Accuracy
58.8%
CHoCH Accuracy
2.9
Avg Events/Session

BOS vs CHoCH Accuracy

Session-Close Continuation Rate

BOS — trend continuation signals

BOS
56.1%
43.9%

CHoCH — reversal signals

CHoCH
58.8%
41.2%

CHoCH signals modestly outperform BOS by 2.7pp. Reversal signals carry a slight edge.

Event Distribution

BOS
68%
CHoCH
32%

Count Breakdown

BOS total: 3,673
CHoCH total: 1,754
BOS continued: 2,061
CHoCH continued: 1,031

BOS signals outnumber CHoCH ~2:1. Trend continuation events naturally dominate in trending sessions.

Direction Split

BOS by Direction

BOS UP
59.3%
n=2,087
BOS DOWN
51.8%
n=1,586

BOS UP outperforms BOS DOWN by 7.5pp. ES structural long bias.

CHoCH by Direction

CHoCH UP
60.5%
n=875
CHoCH DOWN
57.1%
n=879

CHoCH UP also leads (60.5% vs 57.1%). Bullish reversals hold better than bearish.

Swing Length & Time-of-Day

Accuracy by Swing Length

40%45%50%55%60%65%70%57.4%56.1%Swing 3n=9,05256.1%58.8%Swing 5n=5,42756%62.1%Swing 8n=3,078
BOS AccuracyCHoCH Accuracy

Swing 3 = 15 min (sensitive) | Swing 5 = 25 min (balanced) | Swing 8 = 40 min (conservative). Longer swings: fewer signals, CHoCH improves to 62.1%.

Time-of-Day Distribution

069813962094279254%n=966Post-IB EarlyBOS: 54.1%CHoCH: 51.4%54.5%n=2,022MiddayBOS: 54.3%CHoCH: 55%60.1%n=2,428LateBOS: 59.4%CHoCH: 60.8%

IB period (6:30-7:30) excluded (only 11 events). Bar height = event count, label = accuracy.

Yearly Stability

Accuracy by Year (BOS / CHoCH Split)

40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%2019n=7422020n=7622021n=7492022n=7312023n=7452024n=7072025n=7282026n=263
BOSCHoCHCombined

Signal Frequency & Confirmation Mode

Events per Session Distribution

0.9%09.3%128%234.4%320.7%45.7%50.9%60.1%7Events per Session

Most sessions produce 2-4 BOS/CHoCH events. Median: 3 events per session.

Close vs Wick Confirmation

Close-Based
56.9%
n=5,427
Wick-Based
50.3%
n=6,845
Close BOS
56.1%
Close confirmation
Close CHoCH
58.8%
Close confirmation

Close-based confirmation (56.9%) significantly outperforms wick-based (50.3%). Wick confirmation generates 1418 more signals but at coin-flip accuracy.

MFE / MAE Analysis

BOS Excursion (points)

Avg MFE
16.48
Favorable excursion
Avg MAE
12.99
Adverse excursion
Median MFE
10.75
Favorable excursion
Median MAE
7.5
Adverse excursion

BOS MFE/MAE ratio: 1.27:1 avg, 1.43:1 median.

CHoCH Excursion (points)

Avg MFE
13.84
Favorable excursion
Avg MAE
10.5
Adverse excursion
Median MFE
8.25
Favorable excursion
Median MAE
6.5
Adverse excursion

CHoCH MFE/MAE ratio: 1.32:1 avg, 1.27:1 median.