Midpoint Edge Analysis Dashboard
2010–2026 | 538 sessions | E-mini S&P 500 | Monday Midpoint
What is the Midpoint Edge?
The Monday midpoint is the average of Monday's full-session high and low: (Monday High + Low) / 2. This analysis tests whether price revisits this level in subsequent sessions at a rate that exceeds what random chance would predict.
How to use this
- Reference level, not trade signal— The midpoint is a statistically significant magnet for price, useful as a key level on your chart.
- Combine with other confluence— Use alongside Flagship levels, IB structure, and gap analysis for higher-confidence setups.
- Close side matters— When price closes below the midpoint, revisit rates are consistently higher (price tends to retrace upward).
- Key caveat— The edge is modest (+3–5pp over random). Random levels within the day's range also get revisited ~70–80% of the time.
84%
Revisit Rate (n=538)
80.3%
Null (Random) Rate
+3.7pp
Edge Over Random
p=0.0020
p-value (z=2.88)
Close Side Analysis
Close Above Midpoint (n=313)
81.2%
revisit rate
Close Below Midpoint (n=224)
87.9%
revisit rate
Yearly Revisit Rate — ES Monday
Green bars exceed the null baseline (80.3%) — red bars fall below
Yearly Breakdown — ES Monday
| Year | Total | Revisited | Revisit % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 52 | 45 | 86.5% |
| 2011 | 39 | 30 | 76.9% |
| 2017 | 15 | 12 | 80% |
| 2018 | 52 | 41 | 78.8% |
| 2019 | 52 | 43 | 82.7% |
| 2020 | 52 | 38 | 73.1% |
| 2021 | 52 | 41 | 78.8% |
| 2022 | 51 | 50 | 98% |
| 2023 | 50 | 41 | 82% |
| 2024 | 52 | 46 | 88.5% |
| 2025 | 52 | 47 | 90.4% |
| 2026 | 19 | 18 | 94.7% |
| TOTAL | 538 | 452 | 84% |
Day-of-Week Revisit Rates — ES Monday
| Day | Total | Revisited | Revisit % | Null Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | 536 | 363 | 67.7% | 49.4% |
| Wednesday | 534 | 257 | 48.1% | 37.1% |
| Thursday | 535 | 185 | 34.6% | 27.5% |
| Friday | 526 | 167 | 31.7% | 23% |
First Revisit Day Distribution
Tuesday363 (67.5%)
Wednesday48 (8.9%)
Thursday22 (4.1%)
Friday19 (3.5%)
Never86 (16%)
|Close − Midpoint| Distance vs Revisit Rate
| Distance (pts) | n | Revisit % |
|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 392 | 86.7% |
| 20-40 | 103 | 80.6% |
| 40-60 | 33 | 63.6% |
| 60-100 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 100-150 | 1 | 100% |
Closer closes to the midpoint generally show higher revisit rates
Key Findings — ES Monday
- ES Monday midpoint is revisited at 84% across 538sessions — exceeding the random baseline of 80.3% by +3.7pp (z=2.88, p=0.0020).
- Sessions closing below the midpoint show a higher revisit rate (87.9%) than those closing above (81.2%), suggesting a stronger upward retracement tendency.
- The first revisit most commonly occurs on Tuesday (67.5% of all weeks) — the very next trading day after the midpoint is established.
- The edge is statistically significantbut modest. Random levels within the day's range also get revisited at ~80.3%. The midpoint is a meaningful reference level, not a standalone trade signal.