Midpoint Edge Analysis Dashboard
2010–2026 | 538 sessions | E-mini S&P 500 | Monday Midpoint
This video explains Monday's midpoint for ES and NQ, not the Wednesday study. Full-session research includes overnight; ES history has gaps, including 2012–2016.
Tuesday revisit: 67.7%. The 84% headline below covers any revisit from Tuesday through Friday, not Tuesday alone. These are bar-range revisits with zero added tolerance, not trade win rates or guaranteed fills.
The question & finding
Is the midpoint revisited more often than a random level?
The ES Monday midpoint was revisited in 84% of the 538 sampled sessions, compared with 80.3% for the random-level baseline. The reported difference is 3.7 percentage points.
Full-session data includes overnight. The Monday headline covers Tuesday through Friday, not Tuesday alone. Historical ES coverage has gaps, including 2012–2016. Revisits are not guaranteed fills or trade wins. Historical results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Yearly Revisit Rate — ES Monday
Green bars exceed the null baseline (80.3%) — red bars fall below
Sample counts & setup
Close Side Analysis
Yearly Breakdown —
| Year | Total | Revisited | Revisit % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 52 | 45 | 86.5% |
| 2011 | 39 | 30 | 76.9% |
| 2017 | 15 | 12 | 80% |
| 2018 | 52 | 41 | 78.8% |
| 2019 | 52 | 43 | 82.7% |
| 2020 | 52 | 38 | 73.1% |
| 2021 | 52 | 41 | 78.8% |
| 2022 | 51 | 50 | 98% |
| 2023 | 50 | 41 | 82% |
| 2024 | 52 | 46 | 88.5% |
| 2025 | 52 | 47 | 90.4% |
| 2026 | 19 | 18 | 94.7% |
| TOTAL | 538 | 452 | 84% |
Day-of-Week Revisit Rates —
| Day | Total | Revisited | Revisit % | Null Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | 536 | 363 | 67.7% | 49.4% |
| Wednesday | 534 | 257 | 48.1% | 37.1% |
| Thursday | 535 | 185 | 34.6% | 27.5% |
| Friday | 526 | 167 | 31.7% | 23% |
First Revisit Day Distribution
|Close − Midpoint| Distance vs Revisit Rate
| Distance (pts) | n | Revisit % |
|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 392 | 86.7% |
| 20-40 | 103 | 80.6% |
| 40-60 | 33 | 63.6% |
| 60-100 | 9 | 77.8% |
| 100-150 | 1 | 100% |
Closer closes to the midpoint generally show higher revisit rates
Key Findings —
- ES Monday midpoint is revisited at 84% across 538sessions — exceeding the random baseline of 80.3% by +3.7pp (z=2.88, p=0.0020).
- Sessions closing below the midpoint show a higher revisit rate (87.9%) than those closing above (81.2%), suggesting a stronger upward retracement tendency.
- The first revisit most commonly occurs on Tuesday (67.5% of all weeks) — the very next trading day after the midpoint is established.
- The edge is statistically significantbut modest. Random levels within the day's range also get revisited at ~80.3%. The midpoint is a meaningful reference level, not a standalone trade signal.
Definitions & interpretation
What is the Midpoint Edge?
The Monday midpoint is the average of Monday's full-session high and low: (Monday High + Low) / 2. This analysis tests whether price revisits this level in subsequent sessions at a rate that exceeds what random chance would predict.
How to use this
- Reference level, not trade signal— The midpoint is a statistically significant magnet for price, useful as a key level on your chart.
- Combine with other confluence— Use alongside Flagship levels, IB structure, and gap analysis for higher-confidence setups.
- Close side matters— When price closes below the midpoint, revisit rates are consistently higher (price tends to retrace upward).
- Key caveat— The edge is modest (+3–5pp over random). Random levels within the day's range also get revisited ~70–80% of the time.