Trend Bender Dashboard

2019-01-02 to 2026-05-27 | 1,899 sessions | ES 5-min bars | WMA 5 / EMA 6 / Shift 1

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What is Trend Bender?

Trend Bender detects trend direction by comparing a Weighted Moving Average (WMA) to a shifted Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on 5-minute bars. When the WMA is above the shifted EMA, the bar is colored bullish; when below, bearish. A color transition signals a potential trend change.

BUY Signal — Bearish-to-bullish transition. WMA crosses above the shifted EMA, suggesting the short-term trend is turning up.
SELL Signal — Bullish-to-bearish transition. WMA crosses below the shifted EMA, suggesting the short-term trend is turning down.

Key findings

  • Combined accuracy is sub-50% — At ~48.4% combined, individual crossovers do not carry a standalone directional edge. The signal is noisy even on 5-min bars with ~10.6 transitions per session.
  • Persistent buy/sell asymmetry — Buy signals (bearish→bullish) consistently outperform sell signals by ~6-9pp across all parameter sets and years. This reflects the structural long bias in equities.
  • Parameter sensitivity is low — Default, Medium, and Slow settings all produce nearly identical accuracy (~48%). Longer settings reduce signal count from ~10.6 to ~3.7/session but don't improve edge.
20,127
Total Signals
10,065
Buy Signals
10,062
Sell Signals
51.8%
Buy Accuracy
45%
Sell Accuracy
10.6
Avg Signals/Session

Buy vs Sell Accuracy

Session-Close Continuation Rate

BUY — bearish-to-bullish transition

BUY
51.8%
48.2%

SELL — bullish-to-bearish transition

SELL
45%
55.0%

Buy signals outperform sell by 6.8pp. This reflects the structural long bias in ES — bullish transitions hold better than bearish ones.

Signal Distribution

BUY
50%
SELL
50%

Count Breakdown

Buy total: 10,065
Sell total: 10,062
Buy continued: 5,214
Sell continued: 4,528

Buy and sell signals are roughly evenly split. The edge lies in the directional accuracy, not signal count.

Parameter Set & Time-of-Day

Accuracy by Parameter Set

35%40%45%50%55%60%51.8%45%DefaultWMA 5 / EMA 6 / Shift 1~10.6/session52.2%44.9%MediumWMA 8 / EMA 10 / Shift 2~5.7/session51.1%44.6%SlowWMA 14 / EMA 14 / Shift 3~3.7/session
Buy AccuracySell Accuracy

All three parameter sets produce virtually identical accuracy (~48.4%). Slower settings reduce signal count from ~10.6 to ~3.7/session but don't improve edge.

Time-of-Day Accuracy

35%40%45%50%55%60%55.1%41.8%First Hourn=1,24853.8%44.4%Mid-Morningn=5,02053.7%45.1%Middayn=6,61948%45.7%Laten=7,240
BuySell

Yearly Stability

Accuracy by Year (Buy / Sell Split)

35%40%45%50%55%60%2019n=28912020n=28502021n=27572022n=27322023n=26232024n=26702025n=26832026n=921
BuySellCombined

The buy/sell asymmetry is consistent across all years. Combined accuracy (cyan dots) stays flat around 49-50% while buy (green) consistently exceeds sell (red).

Forward Accuracy & Trend Duration

Forward Bar Accuracy

After a signal, is price moving in the predicted direction after N bars?

35%40%45%50%55%60%51.9%46.4%5 barsn=18k52.7%46.2%10 barsn=17k53.2%44.7%20 barsn=14k54.5%43.5%30 barsn=11k
BuySell

Trend Duration (bars)

How long does each trend streak last before flipping? On 5-min bars with short MAs, trends are short-lived.

Bullish Avg
6.6
11,045 streaks
Bearish Avg
5.6
10,982 streaks
Bullish Median
4
bars per streak
Bearish Median
4
bars per streak

Median trend duration is 4 bars (20 min). Most crossovers reverse quickly — the indicator is highly sensitive with default settings.

MFE / MAE Analysis

Buy Signal Excursion (points)

Avg MFE
14.05
Favorable excursion
Avg MAE
15.56
Adverse excursion
Median MFE
9
Favorable excursion
Median MAE
9.25
Adverse excursion

MFE/MAE ratio: 0.90:1 avg, 0.97:1 median.

Sell Signal Excursion (points)

Avg MFE
14.77
Favorable excursion
Avg MAE
14.85
Adverse excursion
Median MFE
8.25
Favorable excursion
Median MAE
9.75
Adverse excursion

MFE/MAE ratio: 0.99:1 avg, 0.85:1 median.